Why is the deficit and debt situation here in the United States different than much of Europe? Simple, we have the Federal Reserve, and they have the European Central Bank. Don’t get us wrong, we have some serious decisions ahead of us to reduce our long term deficit and pay down some debt, but there is one thing we have on our side: time. Not a lot, but enough. Through quantitative easing programs, the Fed has lowered US borrowing costs to the point where it doesn’t hurt as much as it should. If the Fed decided to sell their $1.65 trillion of US marketable securities, interest rates would surely rise, closer to historical norms. Instead of paying slightly less than 3% on US federal debt, rates could be closer to 4%, 5%, or even 6%. Total interest payments could balloon from $0.5 trillion to nearly $1 trillion and exacerbate our deficit problem. The United States would essentially look like Europe, but the Fed has stopped this from happening, for now. These actions have granted our government the time get our fiscal house in order – well potentially, but that is a conversation for another time.
Some interesting books on the Fed and the ECB:
In FED We Trust: Ben Bernanke's War on the Great Panic
The Fed : The Inside Story How World's Most Powerful Financial Institution Drives Markets
Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in EMU?: A critical assessment of ECB policy
The Ecb and the Euro: The First Five Years
Stabilizing an Unstable Economy
The Federal Reserve System: A History
Although it would seem so in reading the news, is Greece really a lost cause at this point? And if not, what role can the ECB play, relative to the IMF and the nation's private sovereign debt holders, in concluding negotiations on the write-down of their current private debt?
ReplyDeleteAlso, even if Greece is able to orchestrate a 50% haircut on their debt, is this even enough considering it only brings their debt responsibility down to 130% of GDP?
I think Greece is definitely a lost cause. WSJ article today stated many investors have already written down 70% of their Greek bondholdings and expect to write down more. As Greece's debt burden is reduced, the focus will turn to their deficit; it really already has. Austerity measures to eliminate future debt burdens could cause civil unrest.
Delete